Each year, there are notable player contracts that are expiring or due for extension. The year before expiration, also known as a player’s “contract year”, is their final year to prove that they are worth the money they are seeking. The extra bit of motivation can be what propels a player to having a stand-out season, ultimately scoring them a lucrative off-season contract and winning leagues for fantasy managers.
Some of the notable contract year standouts we have seen during the 2022 season include Josh Jacobs (RB3, 2022 rushing leader), Saquon Barkley (RB5), and Tony Pollard (RB7). In more recent years, we have seen league winning contract year performances from players such as 2021 Leonard Fournette (RB6), 2021 Mike Williams (WR12), 2021 Davante Adams (WR2, however I caveat this one by stating Adams already had high expectations coming off of a WR1 year in 2020, but it was a great contract year regardless), 2021 James Conner (RB5), 2020 Alvin Kamara (RB1), 2020 Dalvin Cook (RB2), and 2020 Derrick Henry (RB3, while amassing just the eighth 2,000 rushing yard season in NFL history).
One notable 2020 mention is Will Fuller’s 2020 contract season, who accumulated 879 receiving yards and 8 reception touchdowns, on a total of 53 receptions over the course of 11 games. As you may know, this season was cut short due to a PED suspension. However, Fuller was on 16 game pace of 77 receptions, 1,279 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns, which would have been good for WR6 on the season.
Needless to say, contract year motivation has been a factor in producing truly special seasons. I want to take an early look at some of the notable running backs that we are expecting to be playing in a contract year during the 2023 season. This write-up will be the first of 3 more analysis deep dives I am planning on publishing, which will be taking a look at QB’s, WR’s, and TE’s.
D’Andre Swift – There’s no denying the talent that the 23 year old Georgia product has displayed during his first 3 years in the league. The biggest question mark surrounding Swift has been his durability and workload, as it’s been clear that the Lions coaching staff wants to keep Swift fresh by employing a committee involving Jamaal Williams and a rotation of other backs. Swift’s path to an increased workload in the upcoming season will largely revolve around whether Detroit chooses to extend short yardage specialist Jamaal Williams this offseason. Should Williams end up walking, Swift’s upside will be undeniable as he enters into his contract year season in 2023. His dual threat ability makes him one of the most versatile running backs in the league, and his homerun speed makes him a threat to house one on any given play if he has the space.
Jonathan Taylor – Coming off of a disappointing 2022 campaign that was plagued with injury and poor offensive line play, Taylor’s draft stock in redraft leagues is likely to take a hit next year. Combine the shakey 2022 season with questions around the team’s quarterback and head coach, and I am anticipating a lot of analysts to be fading Taylor during the offseason. Taylor, who is one year removed from a near 2,200 total yard season and 20 touchdown breakout year, still has age on his side as he will just be 24 at the start of the next season. Entering a contract year this upcoming year, I would not be surprised if the incoming head coach revolves the Colts’ offensive scheme around Taylor similar to how Brian Daboll had the Giants’ offense running through Saquon Barkley this year. The front office has been vocal about how much they like the Wisconsin product, and it would not surprise me one bit if the plan this offseason was to draft a rookie QB and ease them in by pounding it on the ground as much as possible. Depending on where Taylor can be taken in redraft leagues, I can see him returing great value on his ADP when you consider he is entering a contract year and should in all likelihood be the centerpiece of the Colts’ offense next season.
Cam Akers – Talk about a rollercoaster start to a career, Cam Akers is the epitome of volatility. From bursting onto the scene late in the season of his rookie year and looking like one of the most promising young backs, to then a yearlong recovery from an ACL injury, only to come back sparring with McVay over playtime, and finally capping off his third year with a promising string of games where he looked like a legitimate threat out of the backfield again. Similar to Taylor, Akers will be coming into the 2023 season with some question marks around him. Nagging issues for Matthew Stafford that sound like they could be career-threatening, along with a looming rebuild seemingly on the way in LA. Unlike Taylor, however, Akers ended the season on a very high note which could bump up his draft capital out of the “bargain territory”. Depending on Akers’ ADP, he could return great value in 2023 as he enters his contract year and will be looking to make a case to pen a lucritive with the Rams, or elsewhere.
JK Dobbins – A player that has been plagued by injuries early on in his career, Dobbins fought tooth and nail to get back on the football field during 2022 following an unfortunate season ending ACL injury in 2021. Since returning in 2022, Dobbins has averaged nearly 6 yard per carry despite not being back to 100%. With the Ravens expected to reach a deal with QB Lamar Jackson during the offseason, we would therefore expect Baltimore’s ground game to again be the focal point of the offense as it has been since Lamar took over at QB in 2018. However, with Jackson having played just 12 games in each of his previous 2 seasons, and most noteably not being healthy for the 2022 playoffs, it will be interesting to see if the Ravens attempt to be more cautious with their star QB next year by not asking him to run quite as much, and instead placing more of the ground game workload on the shoulders of JK Dobbins.
You may be looking at this list of players thinking to yourself that one or all of them are on your “do not draft list” next year. I would strongly urge you to reconsider those thoughts. Instead of marking a player as “do not draft”, determine what round they would need to fall to you in for you to be comfortable drafting them. That way you have a more solid plan should that player fall to you in your draft.
It is also important to be mindful of what players are entering a contract year as these players routinely turn out to be fantasy league winners. Make sure to stay tuned for the next installment of this analysis series where I will be taking a look at contract year wide receivers in 2023.
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